FED, NESSUN ANNUNCIO MA “TIMORI PER LA CRISI ITALIANA”

L’ira di Trump: “Non ho ancora capito se il mio nemico è Jay Powell o il premier Xi”

Nessun accenno al taglio dei tassi. Ma la promessa, l’ennesima, di un pronto intervento nel caso fosse necessario. Jerome Powell delude i mercati, anche se parzialmente. Perché il leader della Fed, nel suo intervento di oggi a Jackson Hole, Wyoming, dov’è in corso il simposio delle Banche centrali di tutto il mondo,  non ha escluso alcun tipo di provvedimento, anzi: “La Federal Reserve è pronta a intervenire in maniera adeguata affinché l’economia non devii dal sentiero dell’espansione” ha dichiarato. Tutto è ancora possibile, insomma. D’altra parte, Powell era consapevole che le attese per il suo intervento erano altissime, e lo sono diventate ancora di più dopo l’annuncio dei nuovi dazi da parte della Cina nei confronti degli Stati Uniti. Un fulmine a ciel sereno (o poco nuvoloso) che ha invertito la tendenza dei mercati, trascinandoli sotto la parità. Inoltre, James Bullard, presidente della Fed di Saint Louis, al contrario di Powell aveva dichiarato in mattinata, al contrario di Powell molto più chiaramente, che i tassi andrebbero abbassati. “Un intervento necessario a causa dell’inversione della curva dei rendimenti. Che non va bene” in riferimento al rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni, sceso sotto quello del titolo a due anni; negli ultimi 40 anni, l’inversione della curva dei rendimenti ha sempre portato a una recessione.

BLOOMBERG: DUE TAGLI ENTRO FINE ANNO
Powell però, come detto, non ha accennato ad alcun tipo di intervento o stimolo: «La performance dell’economia Usa resta tutto sommato positiva e ben posizionata. Le voci investimenti e manifattura si sono indebolite ma la crescita dell’occupazione e dei salari sostiene i consumi e favorisce una crescita positiva». Nessuna indicazione precisa dunque, ma per molti questa non è una sorprsa, anche in virtù degli esiti della pubblicazione dei verbali della riunione della Fed del 31 luglio scorso: “Il taglio dei tassi di 25 punti base è un aggiustamento a metà ciclo” era spiegato nel documento. Tradotto: non c’è nessuna strategia di interventi di lungo periodo. Le aspettative del mercato e degli investitori rimangono comunque molto alte nei confronti di una nuova riduzione del costo del denaro: secondo Bloomberg, il consensus si aspetta due tagli pieni da qui fino alla fine del 2019.

“PREOCCUPATI PER LA CRISI IN ITALIA”
Jerome Powell ha anche citato la crisi politica italiana tra le crescenti tensioni mondiali: “Ci sono prove di un rallentamento globale, in particolare in Germania e in Cina -ha detto sempre nel corso del Simposio di Jackson Hole-. Ci sono anche eventi geopolitici in evidenza, tra cui la sempre più probabile Hard Brexit, le crescenti tensioni a Hong Kong e lo scioglimento del governo italiano”. Tensioni, ha continuato Powell, a cui “i mercati finanziari hanno reagito con forza in un quadro complesso e turbolento”. Alla chiusura dei mercati, lo spread ha registrato un incremento attestandosi a 200 punti base, in scia alle divisioni all’interno del Pd che potrebbero compromettere il patto con il M5S su cui i mercati hanno scommesso.

LA FURIA DI TRUMP
Come per la notizia dei dazi, non si è fatta attendere la risposta del presidente degli Stati Uniti: “Mi domando chi sia il mio vero nemico, tra Xi (il premier cinese NdR) e Powell. Ancora una volta la Fed non ha fatto niente! E’ incredibile che possano ‘parlare’ senza sapere o chiedere cosa faccio o come la penso, cosa che tutti sapranno tra poco. Abbiamo un dollaro molto forte e una Fed molto debole. Lavorerò “brillantemente” con entrambe le parti”. E’ evidente che il presidente sia rimasto deluso ancora una volta da Powell, nonostante il pressing che dura da settimane. In questo senso, Trump ha dichiarato che a breve farà un annuncio, con ogni probabilità una replica sia alle mosse della Cina, oppure un provvedimento alternativo per indebolire il dollaro.

REAZIONE DEL MERCATO
Poco mosse dopo l’intervento di Powell, che ha comunque contribuito lievemente a risollevare i mercati azionari dopo l’annuncio dei dazi cinesi, le borse hanno subito un brusco crollo proprio a seguito dei tweet di Donald Trump: in Europa rossi di oltre il punto percentuale per i principali listini e oro a 1.530 dollari l’oncia. Giù il dollaro dopo l’apprezzamento nel corso della mattinata che lo aveva portato a 1,1060. Un’ora dopo la chiusura dell’Europa il biglietto verde scambia oltre quota 1,11.

 

 

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