I fattori che influenzano il prezzo di un’opzione

La Borsa Valori, quando si parla di opzioni, va equiparata al più grande mercato assicurativo dove i grandi investitori impostano strategie che prevedono profitti o perdite a seconda del determinarsi di eventi a loro favorevoli o meno. Le opzioni, infatti, esprimono il loro valore con un prezzo definito “premio” e questo giustifica la definizione precedente di mercato.  Ma al fluttuare dell’indice cosa accade al valore delle opzioni? Rispetto ai classici strumenti azionari, esclusivamente direzionali, dalle opzioni è possibile determinare un profitto anche con un mercato estremamente laterale? La risposta è “SI”, ma tutto dipende dalla soggettiva interpretazione del mercato e dalle variabili che influenzano tale strumento derivato.

Le variabili delle opzioni sono le  Greche:  DELTA, GAMMA, VEGA, THETA, RHO

Consideriamo l’esempio grafico di una opzione call 22000 comprata al prezzo di 264 che comporta una spesa di 264*2.5 (leva)= 660€. Chi esegue una operazione del genere spende un premio e si assicura un rendimento se, a scadenza l’indice si trova almeno sopra i 22264 (22000+264 punti premio acquistati=break-even).  Mi soffermo su un esempio esclusivamente numerico che, per ora, non contempla le varie componenti facenti parti di un premio di una opzione e che considera il risultato finale a scadenza. Durante la vita di una opzione tutte le variabili influenzano contemporaneamente un premio ma ciò che conta, per ora, è l’aspetto didattico del prodotto in esame.

Dalla figura si nota, sul lato sinistro, il punto di break-even (se a scadenza si trova al di sopra di tale valore si ha un profitto) ed anche le greche che regolano il valore del premio durante la vita della opzione.

Il Delta riflette la sensibilità del premio di una opzione al variare dell’indice sottostante e quindi, se alla data dell’acquisto dell’opzione l’indice valeva 21900 ed il premio 230, ed il giorno dopo vale 22000 ed il premio 264, il calcolo sarà:

Variazione del prezzo dell’opzione / variazione del prezzo del sottostante =   (264-230) / (22000-21900) = 0,34

Quindi possiamo dire che la variazione di 100 punti di indice ha influito dello 0.34 sul premio dell’opzione assumendo costanti le altre greche ovviamente. Nel caso di una call comprata il delta è positivo (i profitti aumentano all’aumentare del sottostante), nel caso di una put comprata è negativo (i profitti aumentano al diminuire del sottostante).

 

Il Gamma è invece la variazione del Delta al variare del sottostante.

Se riguardiamo la figura in alto, in particolare la linea rossa (espressione del profitto /perdita giornaliera in funzione dell’andamento dell’indice), notiamo la concavità della stessa che esprime proprio l’accelerazione al rialzo/ribasso del delta (direzione) e quindi del valore del premio durante la vita dell’opzione. Il gamma nel caso di una opzione comprata è detto positivo.

Il Theta esprime l’impatto del fattore tempo che trascorre fino alla sua naturale scadenza sul premio. Quindi se l’indice si dovesse trovare al di sopra di 22264 l’acquirente otterrà un profitto, al contrario potrebbe perdere gran parte o tutto il premio. Il theta in questo caso si dice negativo perché, all’avvicinarsi della scadenza, erode totalmente (se il sottostante non supera lo strike 22000 comprato) o parzialmente (se il sottostante si troverà a scadenza tra lo strike ed il break-even)  il valore del premio.

Infatti la formula del valore di una opzione call comprata a scadenza è pari a

PREZZO SOTTOSTANTE- STRIKE

Nel nostro esempio se l’indice si trovasse a scadenza a 22300 si avrebbe un valore premio a scadenza pari a

22300-22000 = 300

300-264 (premio speso)*2.5 = €90

Se l’indice:

  • si trovasse a scadenza a 22000 il premio sarebbe 0 e quindi genererebbe una perdita di 264*2.5= €660 ovvero il premio speso per l’acquisto dell’opzione;
  • si trovasse tra 22264 e 22000 allora si perderebbe gran parte del premio;
  • a scadenza valesse 22264 non si avrebbe né un guadagno né una perdita ottenendo dal mercato il premio speso inizialmente.

Il Vega esprime la sensibilità di una opzione al variare della volatilità del sottostante. Se il Vega è pari a 0.7 significa che al variare del +/-1% della volatilità l’opzione varierà del +/- 0.7€ a parità delle altre greche. Il vega in caso di una opzione comprata è detto positivo

Il Rho è l’impatto dei tassi di interesse sul valore del premio di una opzione con correlazione positiva sulle call e negativa sulle put.

Il caso opposto è la vendita di una opzione che permetterebbe (a fronte di un rischio infinito) di guadagnare anche in caso di un sottostante laterale che non ecceda il punto di break-even ovviamente

Vediamo sempre lo strike call 22000 ma venduto che genera una figura inversa e contraria:

Considerando lo stesso prezzo di 264 punti che genera un incasso premio di €660, se l’indice non supera i 22264 si genererebbe un profitto totale sotto i 22000 punti e parziale tra 22263 e 22000, mentre al di sopra di tale valore la perdita potrebbe essere infinita!! (meglio coprirsi dai rischi sempre!!)

Quando si opera in opzioni spesso le strategie sono dinamiche e non statiche, come negli esempi di cui sopra, ed è importante la copertura per limitare i rischi.

 

Analisi di Giorgio Salvato, Option Trader
Canale Telegram: miboption

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