LEONTEQ, NUOVO CERTIFICATO SU PROCESSORI E SCHEDE USA

Avete una visione moderatamente rialzista o non catastrofica sui tecnologici Usa in generale ed in particolare su processori e schede? Se la risposta è sì, un certificato che potrebbe solleticare il vostro interesse è stato emesso dalla società svizzera Leonteq.

Il prodotto è quotato sul mercato italiano Euro Tlx con Isin CH0478386607.

Vediamo nel dettaglio di cosa si tratta, analizzando il prodotto su 5 piani diversi: sottostante, cedola, rimborso, prezzo e merito di credito.

Questi i sottostanti. Il certificato ha come sottostante tre titoli americani: Amd, Intel e Nvidia. Si tratta come detto di colossi dell’High tech.

Così la cedola. Il certificato prevede un rendimento annuale semplice del 7,2%, ottenuto distribuendo ogni mese cedole dello 0,6%. Questo rendimento è corrisposto fino a maggio del 2024 a patto però che non si siano verificate 2 condizioni.

Quali? Gli ostacoli da superare sono due. Il primo, nessuno dei 3 titoli nel paniere deve perdere almeno il 35% del valore iniziale, inteso questo come il livello di chiusura del sottostante il giorno di rilevazione del fixing iniziale. Nel dettaglio questi valori di debutto sono rispettivamente: 26,44 per Amd, 44,57 per Intel e 145,15 per Nvidia. Le barriere per le cedole tenendo con di questi valori di fixing sono, invece, a 14,81 per Amd, 24,96 Intel e 81,28 per Nvidia, ottenute sottraendo ai valori iniziali il 35%.

Per avere qualche punto di riferimento, nel momento in cui si scrive (17 luglio), questi titoli scambiano a 30,39 (Amd), 49,17 (Intel), 167,08 (Nvidia). Le azioni, quindi, si sono apprezzate e allontanate dalla barriera cedola. La garanzia di incassare la cedola si è rafforzata. Quanto alle rilevazioni, queste vengono fatte mensilmente.

Effetto memory. Un elemento a favore dell’investitore è dato dal cosiddetto “memory coupon” ovvero se su una rilevazione mensile la cedola non è distribuita viene recuperata il primo mese utile successivo, quando dovuta. Quando cioè il peggiore dei tre titoli sceso sotto la barriera si riporta al di sopra.

Prezzo e tasse. Le cedole sono lorde delle tasse, al netto occorrerà sottrarre dal rendimento il 26%. Cosi come occorrerà tenere contro nel calcolo del rendimento del prezzo di acquisto del certificato, se sopra 1.000 il rendimento verrà corroso. Nel momento in cui si scrive scambia a 1.005, quindi sopra il valore di emissione. Il prezzo tiene ovviamente conto dell’andamento dei titoli sottostanti sul mercato.

Il rimborso anticipato. Il secondo ostacolo è il rimborso anticipato. Il certificato è detto per questo “Autocallble”. Le cedole, infatti, sono incassate, se dovute, da parte dell’investitore fino a novembre del 2019. Il rendimento fino a quella data è pari al 3% lordo. Se il 24 novembre 2019 prima osservazione dell’autocall trigger level i titoli hanno tutti e ripetiamo tutti un valore superiore al valore iniziale (26,44 per Amd, 44,57 per Intel e 145,15 per Nvidia), il certificato viene richiamato dall’emittente e rimborsato al valore iniziale 1.000. Come dettò, ora questi titoli sono tutti al di sopra del valore iniziale. Le rilevazioni vengono fatte mensilmente.

Il rimborso anticipato diventa più probabile con il passare del tempo se i titoli si inseriscono all’interno di un trend stabile o ascendente. A partire dal 24 giugno 2020 se tutti e 3 i titoli hanno un valore superiore al 95% del valore iniziale scatta il rimborso anticipato. Il 24 giugno 2021 la soglia passa al 90%, poi il 24 giugno 2022 stessa data all’85%, fino al 26 giugno 2023 all’80%.

Il rimborso a scadenza. Fin qui il rimborso anticipato, passando a quello a scadenza le considerazioni cambiano. La data di rilevazione è quella del 24 maggio 2024 (poco meno di 5 anni). Qui entra in gioco il livello di Strike, fissato in questo caso sul 50% del valore iniziale dei singoli titoli. Altra differenza rispetto al rimborso anticipato è che in quello a scadenza è sufficiente che un solo titolo scenda sotto il 50% del valore iniziale e cioè 13,22 per Amd, 22,29 per Intel e 72,58 per Nvidia per far scattare la formula di restituzione del capitale fissata nel prospetto. Nel rimborso anticipato, invece, la condizione riguarda tutti e 3 i titoli contestualmente.

Questo algoritmo prevede un rimborso pari al prezzo di emissione 1.000 per il livello di chiusura del sottostante con la performance peggiore diviso il suo livello strike.

Un caso pratico. Una formula apparentemente complicata che diventa però molto più semplice quando si traduce in numeri sul piano pratico. Supponiamo che a scadenza i 3 titoli, per effetto di un importante discesa sul mercato, quotino 13 Amd, 23 Intel, 140 Nvidia. Uno solo dei 3 titoli, Amd, è sceso sotto il 50%, tuttavia scatta il rimborso sotto il valore di emissione. Nel dettaglio la restituzione del capitale avverrà al valore iniziale del certificato all’emissione, 1000, per 13 (il valore a scadenza del titolo peggiore), diviso lo strike e cioè 13,22. A calcoli fatti il rimborso sarà pari a 1.000*13/13,22 quindi 983. L’investitore avrà perso l’1,7%.

Alla perdita finale si può arrivare anche per altra strada, la performance del titolo peggiore rispetto al valore iniziale meno 50% moltiplicato 2. Tradotto se Amd quota a scadenza 13 vuol dire che ha perso il 50,83% rispetto al valore iniziale, meno 50% è 0,83% moltiplicato per 2 si arriva all’1,7% arrotondato, valore analogo all’1,7% di prima. L’eventuale minusvalenza potrà essere compensata con altre plusvalenze realizzate su altre operazioni sui mercati.

Merito di credito. Un’ultima considerazione va fatta con riferimento al merito di credito dell’emittente. Leonteq ha un rating pari a BBB-, sottoscrivere un certificato equivale ad un prestito all’emittente. Il rating per avere un termine di paragone è analogo a quello dello Stato Italiano. Facendo un raffronto di rendimenti i titoli di Stato italiano hanno rendimenti sotto lo 0 fino a 2 anni, valori decisamente diversi e più bassi dai rendimenti di questi certificati ma con legami rispetto all’andamento di mercato diversi. Il punto di partenza rimane la previsione iniziale, come il gioco dell’oca si ritorna al punto dal quale eravamo partiti nella descrizione. (riproduzione riservata)

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