Il capoanalista De Casa: “Ribassi per il rischio che la Bce deluda i mercati ma può risalire”

Ha aggiornato i massimi degli ultimi sei anni il 6 settembre scorso, a 1.557 dollari l’oncia. Poi, quattro sedute di ribassi, che hanno fatto scendere il prezzo dell’oro sotto quota 1.500 (-4% circa in cinque giorni). Alla vigilia del consiglio direttivo della Banca Centrale Europea, le prospettive a breve termine per il metallo giallo sembrano “complesse”, come spiega Carlo Alberto De Casa, capo analista ActivTrades: “I prezzi soffrono dell’umore di rischio che sta prevalendo sui mercati finanziari, e così spingono gli investitori a scommettere su attività più rischiose. I trader ora stanno aspettando il discorso di Mario Draghi, per capire se sarà in grado di soddisfare le aspettative che ha sollevato di tassi di interesse ancora più bassi e più stimoli economici, che potrebbero essere sotto forma di acquisto di beni”.

Quando le aspettative sono elevate, ed è proprio il caso del vertice di domani a Francoforte presso l’Eurotower, inevitabilmente si crea anche il rischio di una delusione elevata: “Questo potrebbe accadere nel momento in cui Draghi non dovesse riuscire a ottenere l’approvazione dal suo team per proseguire con queste misure, in quella che sarà la sua riunione finale come presidente della BCE.” prosegue De Casa. Che aggiunge: “Il declino dell’oro registrato negli ultimi giorni riflette proprio queste aspettative”. Prosegue il capo analista ActivTrades: “In ogni caso, la correzione rimane moderata, anche se i prezzi hanno raggiunto un nuovo record negativo dell’ultimo mese. L’oro è ancora all’interno dei valori raggiunti il 13 agosto scorso, in buon sostanza tra i minimi a 1.477 e i 1.535 dollari l’oncia. Un’interruzione o riduzione di questi livelli potrebbe offrire un nuovo impulso direzionale, anche se la tendenza principale appare ancora positiva”.

Negli ultimi 12 mesi, l’oro ha guadagnato più del 32%, consolidando così il suo ruolo di unico vero bene rifugio nonché protezione da una presunta e imminente recessione, come accadde tra il 2008 e il 2011 in cui raggiunse un valore record di 1.822 dollari l’oncia.  E’ proprio durante i periodi di recessione che gli investitori cercano asset sicuri che non perdano valore. In questo senso il metallo prezioso raramente delude questa aspettativa. Tra il 2007 e il 2009, l’indice della Borsa di New York S&P500 cadde di circa il 50%, l’indice delle obbligazioni salì del 7%. L’oro era su del 25%.


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