OPZIONI: VERTICAL PUT CREDIT SPREAD SU UNICREDIT

Il titolo è in tendenza ribassista dopo la trimestrale. L’analisi di Eugenio Sartoretti

 

Il grafico giornaliero fa riferimento al titolo a partire da fine 2018: com’è evidente, viene da un deciso ribasso avviato intorno al 19 luglio e che per ora non sembra trovare ostacoli. In realtà 9,5 euro è un supporto molto importante: è proprio qui che si è arrestata la discesa a dicembre, e poi anche a inizio febbraio dell’anno in corso. In questo senso si può notare che il titolo ha una forza relativa inferiore rispetto all’Indice (linea verde in basso) e di fatto è in discesa da metà aprile.

Spiega Eugenio Sartorelli di www.investimentivincenti.it: “Qui lasciamo al lettore trarre delle conclusioni sul possibile andamento di Unicredit. Infatti qualsiasi analisi non può che essere di tipo probabilistico. La decisione da prendere è se il supporto di 9,5 euro reggerà, oppure se verrà violato, con il successivo supporto di rilievo a 8,5 euro”.

Se si ipotizza che il supporto terrà, commenta Sartorelli, un’operazione coerente e a basso rischio è il Put credit Vertical Spread, su scadenza settembre e con il titolo che vale circa 9,877 euro:
– Vendita 1 Put strike 9,5 euro- si incassa 0,297 circa.
– Acquisto 1 Put strike 9 euro- si spende 0,161 circa.

In totale, prosegue l’analista, si incassano 0,136 euro, che per 500 titoli Unicredit che muovono 1 contratto di opzione fanno 68 euro. Cifra corrispondente all’utile massimo per Unicredit, che rimanga sopra 9,5 euro alla scadenza dell’opzione (20 settembre). La perdita massima invece è di 182 euro per Unicredit sotto 9 euro. Questa operazione richiede una marginazione dell’ordine della massima perdita.

Inutile fare calcoli legati a un utile ben più alto della perdita, continua Sartorelli, poiché bisognerebbe moltiplicarli per le probabilità di ottenere tale utile/perdita.

Chi pensasse, al contrario, che il supporto di 9,5 euro possa essere violato con valori che possono scendere sotto 9 euro, non farà altro che operare in modo inverso, ovvero si acquista la Put settembre strike 9,5 e si vende lo strike 9 euro per finanziare parzialmente l’operazione. L’utile e la perdita sono l’inverso dell’operazione vista prima.

Conclude l’analista di Investimenti Vincenti: “Si potrebbe anche solo acquistare la Put settembre strike 9, in modo da guadagnare anche con una crescita di volatilità su eventuali ribassi del titolo”.

opzione unicredit

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