WSJ: PER UN ECONOMISTA SU TRE RECESSIONE ENTRO 12 MESI

Lo rivela un sondaggio del quotidiano americano. Sulla Fed il 63,9% prevede un nuovo taglio a settembre

Recessione in America? Un analista americano su tre risponde di sì. Salgono dunque le probabilità di una contrazione economica Usa nel giro dei prossimi 12 mesi, almeno secondo un sondaggio realizzato dal Wall Street Journal. Tra il 2 e il 6 agosto il quotidiano statunitense ha interpellato una serie di esperti e il risultato è il seguente: per il 33,6% degli intervistati, le chances di una recessione sono aumentate, ed è il valore più alto registrato da quando il giornale Usa ha lanciato questo tipo di sondaggio: il primo risale al 2011. A luglio, le probabilità si erano attestate al 30,1%. Poco più della metà, e quindi il 18%, è stato invece il risultato calcolato esattamente un anno fa.

FED: AVANTI CON UN NUOVO TAGLIO A SETTEMBRE
Ma c’è un altro dato che il sondaggio del WSJ porta con sé. Si tratta della Federal Reserve. Per il 63,9% degli economisti interpellati, la banca centrale americana ridurrà il costo del denaro per la seconda volta nel giro di pochi mesi. Più precisamente nella riunione del 17 e del 18 settembre. Un mese fa, gli intervistati che avevano dato questa risposta erano il 49,8% del campione. Portati al 2-2,2% dal 2,25-2,5%, i tassi sono visti dagli analisti all’1,84% entro la fine del 2019, cosa che presuppone un’altra riduzione di 25 punti base. Il 72,9% degli intervistati, infine, ha giudicato in maniera positiva la scelta di Jerome Powell e del Consiglio Direttivo della Fed il taglio di 25 punti base dei tassi annunciato la settimana scorsa. Allineati all’opinione di Donald Trump, e quindi convinti che l’intervento sarebbe dovuto essere di 50 punti base, sono il 12,5% degli economisti mentre un altro 14,6% avrebbe lasciato il costo del denaro laddove era stato portato nel dicembre del 2018, in linea con i voti dei due “dissidenti” del Consiglio: Esther George, presidente della Fed di Kansas City, e Eric Rosengren, presidente della Fed di Boston, che avrebbero preferito un rinvio.

REAZIONE DEL MERCATO
Wall Street oggi ha aperto le contrattazioni positivamente, sostenuta dai buoni dati macro sulla disoccupazione Usa: 209 mila le richieste iniziali di disoccupazione nell’ultima settimana rilevata, un dato inferiore alle attese (215 mila) e a quello precedente (217 mila). Le performances del mercato americano hanno dato nuovo slancio alle borse europee, che hanno chiuso in rally. Stabile l’Euro/Dollaro, a quota 1,12.

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